US Congressional Research Service/allAfrica.com
Ted Dagne
26 June 2009
The following is the prepared testimony of Ted Dagne of Congressional Research Service before the United States House of Representatives Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health on June 25, 2009 in Washington, DC. The hearing was entitled, “Somalia: Prospects for a Lasting Peace and Unified Response to Extremism and Terrorism.”
Chairman Payne, Ranking Member Smith, and members of the sub-committee, let me first express my appreciation for the opportunity to testify before your sub-committee. I am sure some of you have seen the images on TV, read about it in the newspapers, and some of you have witnessed the untold suffering of many Somalis over the years. I have stopped counting how many innocent civilians have been killed, maimed, or how many more people displaced from their homes because of fighting. Unfortunately and sadly, many more people will die in the coming weeks and months. A Somali friend recently told me that he has given up dreaming about a better future for his family.
In April, Chairman Payne and I traveled to Mogadishu to obtain a firsthand account of conditions in Mogadishu. Some questioned the delegation’s decision to go to Mogadishu, while others praised it. An important thing to remember is the fact that children and the most vulnerable live in these conditions everyday. The day we arrived in Mogadishu five innocent civilians were killed and over a dozen injured.
Almost three years ago this week in a testimony before this sub-committee, I read a short Somali proverb in an attempt to describe conditions on the ground. The proverb: “Sorrow is like rice in the store; if a basketful is removed everyday, it will come to an end at last.” I stated then that Somalia’s tragedy would come to an end, we just don’t know how soon. Three years later, I still cannot tell you with certainty what the future hold for the millions of Somalis.
One thing is clear: the determination and commitment I saw 15 years ago at the height of the civil war by Somali women, human rights advocates, and Somali nationalists, is still very much alive. The leadership of the current government is not staying at the Serena Hotel in Nairobi, Kenya. They are in Mogadishu facing the challenges and risks everyday with their people. Some left family members, friends, and safe environment here in the U.S. so that they can help their people and help secure a lasting peace in Somalia.
Hundreds of thousands of Somalis have died due to factional fighting, famine, or disease over the past decade. I have witnessed the untold suffering of the people of Somalia over the past decade in the refugee camps in Kenya and in Somalia. A generation of Somalis is growing up surrounded by violence, poverty, and face a very bleak future. Many have been internally displaced or forced to flee their country. In the refugee camps in Kenya, you find Somali teenagers, some of them born there, who have never been able to see their country or the opportunity to live a normal life.
Indeed the most affected by the violence and chaos in Somalia are women and children. Many Somali girls have been raped and violated by the so-called militia. And even a rape victim is stoned to death for reporting what happened to her. If the extremists waging the war against the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) succeed, we are likely to see more of these acts by Al-Shibaab.
Recent Developments
In early May, Somali extremist groups backed by foreign fighters launched a major offensive against the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia and the African Union peacekeeping forces (AMISOM). Over the past six weeks, more than 300 people have been killed and many more wounded. The primary objective of this offensive is to oust the TFG from power and force AMISOM to leave Somalia. Several Al-Shibaab factions, Hizbul al-Islam, and foreign fighters have been engaged in a series of battles against government forces. Al-Shibaab has also carried out a number of assassinations, including the police Chief and the Minister of Interior, who were killed last week, in an attempt to create a leadership crisis.
More than 400 foreign fighters reportedly from Afghanistan, Yemen, Pakistan, the United States, Canada, Britain, Kenya, and several other countries have been engaged in the fighting in support of the Al-Shibaab forces. More than 290 fighters reportedly entered Mogadishu in early May, while an estimated 50 fighters were in Mogadishu for much longer. Some of these fighters have been killed in battles in Mogadishu. Some of the fighters characterized as foreign fighters are actually Somalis who look like foreigners. The insurgents receive support from the outside and from some Somali businessmen, who are unhappy with the TFG leadership. In May 2009, the spokesman of Al-Shibaab admitted that foreign fighters have joined the fighting.
In early June 2009, Al-Shibaab and Hizbul Islam made important gains in Mogadishu and other parts of Somalia, in large part due to defections to the insurgency and lack of resources. The TFG forces regrouped, and by mid-June managed to regain some lost grounds in Mogadishu. But the TFG remains vulnerable and its ability to defeat the insurgents depends on resources, including Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs), mobility, and a well organized and sustainable military operations.
The presence of the African Union force has helped prevent the takeover of Mogadishu by the insurgents. But the African Union force does not have a Chapter 7 mandate, requiring the force to be on the defensive rather than taking offensive measures against the insurgents. The African Union force has used its long range artilleries against the insurgents. These measures have weakened and forced the insurgents to remain outside the range of these weapons. But the most serious challenge facing the TFG forces and those of the AU is that the insurgents are highly decentralized and move in small units, and operate independently of one another.
The Leadership of Al-Shibaab and other Factions
Who are the leaders of the insurgents? The leaders of Al-Shibaab are not well known, with the exception of a few. Some of the key commanders and leaders of Al-Shibaab come from Somaliland. Ahmed Abdi Godane, who is on the U.S. terrorism list and who trained and fought in Afghanistan, is a key commander from Somaliland. Mukhtar Robow, who is also on the U.S. terrorism list, is considered one of the key leaders of the Shibaab and a former spokesman, although in recent weeks he has been marginalized and has been at odd with the other commanders, especially Godane. Another key leader is Ibrahim Haji Jama, who is on the U.S. terrorism list, reportedly trained and fought in Afghanistan. Hassan al-Turki, a member of the Ogaden clan from Ethiopia, has openly called for Jihad, and works closely with foreign fighters. Indha Adde is another commander, who fought against the Ethiopian occupation and worked closely with Sheik Hassan Aweys, a former leader of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS-Asmara). In February 2008, then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice designated Al-Shibaab as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group. The TFG was able to win over some Al-Shibaab fighters to join the government side. However, several hundred fighters who recently joined government forces were sent by the extremist groups to infiltrate the government security force. In May 2009, at the height of the recent fighting in Mogadishu, most of these fighters went back to rejoin the militia groups they left earlier.
Sheik Sharif Hassan Aweys.
In late April, Sheik Sharif Hassan Aweys, who is on the U.S. terrorism list, returned to Mogadishu from Eritrea. Sheik Aweys had remained in Eritrea and formed his own faction after the top leadership of the ARS signed an agreement in Djibouti with other Somali parties, which led to the formation of the current government. ARS-Asmara, under the leadership of Aweys, did not garner significant support, although Aweys intensified his support for extremist groups inside Somalia. ARS-Asmara leaders were not in full agreement with Aweys and his support for the extremist groups inside Somalia. They provided written documentation to this effect to a visitor in April 2009. These leaders stated that they formed their own organization and would disassociate themselves from Aweys. These leaders left Eritrea in May.
