Ethiopia must play a leading role on Nile

Reporter, Ethiopia January 23, 2010 Although the ten-year-old "Nile Basin Initiative" established by the Nile Basin courtiers has produced some tangible results in terms of forging co-operation between the riparian countries, the main co-operation framework agreement has still not been agreed upon and ratified. Egypt and Sudan want the colonial treaty that they signed with the United Kingdom, which confers on them the right to be the major beneficiaries of the Nile waters, to continue to be in force. On the other hand, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo (Eritrea has withdrawn) insist that this colonial treaty should be set aside and be replaced by a new agreement which ensures that the Nile waters are fairly and equitably shared for the common benefit of all the riparian countries. It is an open secret that there are attempts to throw a spanner in the works and that this has given rise to an atmosphere of palpable distrust. Expectations that the agreement will be signed have been dashed time and again. The impasse between the seven riparian countries on the one hand and the other two countries has proven difficult to break. Further talks are scheduled in February in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm Al Sheik. Observers are anticipating that they will be make-or-break negotiations that will determine whether an agreement can be reached or not. Ethiopia can and should play an important role in the whole process, which has various dimensions. One is that given all the Nile Basin countries are member states of the Africa Union (AU), an agreement would be a big victory for the Union while a rift would be a blow to it. As Ethiopia is the seat of the AU, it has a unique role to play in this regard. Ethiopia accounts for a vast portion of the waters of the Nile among the basin countries. More than eighty-five percent of the Nile waters flowing to Egypt come from Ethiopia along with a large quantity of soil. In view of this, Ethiopia can no longer countenance the notion that other countries are entitled to a greater share of the Nile waters. And it would be wrong if it were to acquiesce with it. This is another factor which makes Ethiopia's role prominent. However, in as much as Ethiopia should benefit duly from the Nile, there is international law stipulating that the source of a transboundary river does not have an exclusive right to use it and that the other riparian countries have a right to use it as well. Therefore, Ethiopia cannot claim that it alone is entitled to benefit from the water it contributes to the Nile. Ethiopia has accepted this principle and is acting accordingly. This is another factor which should be properly appreciated during the talks to reach an agreement on the Nile co-operation framework. The historical relations that Ethiopia has with both Sudan and Egypt is another reason which makes Ethiopia assume a special role. Though these relations are longstanding, they have been occasionally beset with mistrust and suspicion. A continuation of this is bound to impede the friendly relations that should exist on the political and economic arena and as such should be accorded particular attention with a view to resolve any problems peacefully and elevate the relations to a new level. Yet another reason is that the other basin countries outside of Egypt and Sudan look to Ethiopia and closely monitor its position in the negotiations. Ethiopia should be perceived to be trustworthy not only in the eyes of Egypt and Sudan but also in those of these countries as well. Recently, a delegation composed of eight Egyptians came to Ethiopia and held discussions with their Ethiopian counterparts. It was later indicated that the discussions were fruitful and that agreement had been reached to use and develop the Nile jointly. But it is not yet clear what "jointly" means. Does "jointly" mean that the Egyptians are willing to sign a new agreement or that Ethiopia has agreed to sign the co-operation agreement even though Egypt has not agreed to all its terms? Or is it their usual politically correct diplomatic expression that takes into account the sensitive nature of the issue? Unless the spirit of the discussions between Ethiopia and Egypt is explicitly stated, it could convey the wrong message to the other basin countries. It could give rise to the question whether Ethiopia is dealing with Egypt behind their backs. On the other hand, it may also take the demands of these countries a step further and bring Egypt closer to signing the agreement. It is being also argued that it can cause them to close confidence and trust in Ethiopia. The important thing is that there has to be transparency. Our actions have to be transparent both to the people of Ethiopia and the basin countries. In view of all this, Ethiopia has to make special preparations to address the following issues in the general framework of the Nile Basin countries meeting in Sharm Al Sheik in February. - How long will the Co-operation framework agreement be on the table for ratification? - If it is not signed during this meeting, when will it be signed? - Will relations between the basin countries continue unsoured in the event that the agreement is not signed? - Will encouraging the large-scale Egyptian investment in Ethiopia have results if no agreement can not be reached at the meeting? - What if the seven basin countries go ahead and sign an agreement between themselves if Egypt and Sudan refuse to sign the agreement? - Can failure to sign the agreement pose the specter of conflict? - What implications does the recent agreement reached between Ethiopia and Egypt have for the meeting? - How does Egypt view Ethiopia's hydro-electric generation program? Does it support or oppose it? - If it supports the program, will it still continue to do so if Ethiopia were to scale up its use of the Nile for irrigation farming? - Isn't the water of the Nile enough to satisfy the needs of all basin countries? - Isn't the proportion of the water of the Nile Ethiopia uses small? If an agreement were to be reached on the equitable use of the Nile, will there really be shortage of water? - Why is there insistence on sticking to an unfair colonial treaty after the Nile Basin countries agreed to work towards a new co-operation framework? - How should the people of Ethiopia be involved in this matter? Who should give them information about it? What should they know? What should they expect? (At least for the time being) These and similar other issues are being raised in all the basin countries and hence should be addressed. Ethiopia should take the initiative soon to play a clear and leading role on this matter.

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