ADDIS ABABA – When Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi came to power in 1991, leaders in the West clamoured to meet the 34-year-old former rebel who had spent 17 years fighting to overthrow a communist regime. Former U.S. President Bill Clinton famously said Meles was part of a “new generation” of African leaders who would bring democracy and industrialisation to the continent.
Ethiopia has remained close to the West ever since. But, as the country holds national elections on May 23, the opposition wants a re-examination of that friendship and some of Ethiopia’s Western allies are feeling the pressure. The opposition says Ethiopia is now just fighting regional wars at the behest of Western nations, which is making the Horn of Africa nation more prone to outside attacks.
At the same time, Meles is looking increasingly to China and other emerging economies to help sub-Saharan Africa’s second most populous nation industrialise quickly and become less dependent on agriculture. The problem for Western nations is that they have to juggle their wish to keep secular Ethiopia as a bulwark against growing militant Islamism in the region with their desire for greater democracy — all with little leverage as most Western aid goes on health and emergency food programmes.
“As countries like China, India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia and Brazil increase their engagement in Ethiopia, Meles may conclude that he does not have to pay quite so much attention to the concerns of Western countries,” David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia told Reuters. Analysts say the West is worried about losing its influence in Africa to growing powers like China and India who do not have electorates at home pressuring them to focus on human rights in the countries they do business with.
MUTED CRITICISM
The democracy question signalled the first strains in the relationship during Ethiopia’s last elections in 2005, when a coalition called Kinijit seemed to mount a serious challenge to the ruling party. After the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) declared victory, Kinijit said the poll had been rigged and riots broke out in the capital. When the smoke cleared, 193 protestors and seven policeman had been killed and Kinijit’s leaders were imprisoned, accused of sparking the violence.
Despite some international observers, including the European Union, siding with Kinijit — and swift condemnation of the government from international human rights groups — the response from Ethiopia’s allies in the West was muted. “The government won the election, there was then a reaction to it, there was then, perhaps, if I can say this without being too undiplomatic, an over reaction to that, which often happens,” then British Prime Minister Tony Blair said in 2005. Some nations, including Britain, only briefly withdrew aid.
Western countries, especially the United States and Britain, have now involved themselves in the run-up to Sunday’s election, saying they are acting as honest brokers. Some Western diplomats helped draw up an electoral code of conduct, which the EPRDF signed with three oppositon parties. The biggest opposition coalition this time, Medrek, refused. Ethiopia’s opposition parties, who say the government is cracking down on them ahead of Sunday’s poll, are now publicly questioning such arrangements. “Some (Western countries) actively ‘engage’ in processes that appear to be giving political legitimacy to Meles and the EPRDF,” Kjetil Tronvoll, Ethiopia analyst at the International Law and Policy Institute, told Reuters. “Very few question the very restrictive human rights in the country.”
USEFUL RELATIONSHIP
Diplomats in Addis Ababa deny that and say they are working behind the scenes to help the government improve its record on democracy and human rights. They say Ethiopia is democratising and plead patience from rights groups. “They are moving in the right direction,” a diplomat told Reuters.
“And you can’t take away their achievements in development and poverty reduction.” Seye Abraha, a former EPRDF defence minister who is now a leader of Medrek, attacked the relationship with West during election debates screened on state television, focusing on Ethiopia’s military campaigns.
“The way our foreign policy and military operates, has a name in the West: it is called ‘contracting out’,” Seye said. “This is how the EPRDF and the government are handling our foreign policy. They are being contracted out by the West to fight their wars. It has made us more prone to attacks by al Qaeda,” he said. Ethiopian troops entered Somalia in late 2006 to oust Islamists who had taken control of much of the country.
Analysts say the move had tacit U.S. support. But despite accusations of a crackdown on dissent, diplomats say the West would be comfortable with Meles winning — as long as he remains a loyal ally in the region, liberalises Ethiopia’s potentially huge economy and democracy continues to develop. “It’s a very useful relationship for some countries,” an Addis Ababa-based diplomat who did not want to be named told Reuters.
“Yes, Ethiopia is secular and keeping the region’s extremists from the gates. And it’s got economic potential with 80 million people. But what we really want here is democracy.” (Editing by David Clarke and Philippa Fletcher)
